Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Is Britney Spears Enslaved?

 Is Britney Spears Enslaved?

One would think that in this Woke World more people would be asking if Britney Spears is a slave.
Although her income and net worth are enviable, it is no secret that the 39-year-old-American has been
under the thumb of a court-appointed guardian for 13 years. Recently, her plight regained media

attention after she gave an impassioned plea in court asking for her Constitutional rights to be restored.In light of the Paternalist Authoritarian Turn of 2020, I herein approach the question of her enslavement

as rigorously as I can, which means my response is nuanced, detailed, and based on my study of

10,000 years of human slavery across the globe.

    In 2017, Palgrave published my book The Poverty of Slavery, one key aspect of which was not to “define” slavery but rather to measure it. In Chapter 2, “Various Degrees of Liberty,” I developed a twenty point “Freedom Scale” based on official definitions and historical characteristics of enslavement. For context, most modern CEOs score a 20 on the scale, chattel field hands worked in the gang system in the antebellum cotton belt of the U.S. South score a 0, and an everyday working American today scores about a 15. So far as I can ascertain, Ms. Spears scores a 4 on my scale, which is just 1 above the score of chattel slaves workinged on the task system in the rice plantations of antebellum South Carolina.

    Here is my Freedom Scale as published and, in bold typeface, my estimation of how it relates to the situation of Ms. Spears based on media reports. Her score, a 0 or 1, is provided at the end of each criterion, in bold and italic typeface. Note that because this is a Freedom Scale rather than a Slavery Scale, some of the wording may be confusing. Just remember, freedom = good = 1 and unfreedom = bad = 0.

Direct Methods of Control:

1.  Is the laborer paid primarily in cash or other liquid assets (e.g., company stock)? (Payment

entirely in kind or in company scrip can be used to limit worker mobility or otherwise ensure his/her

dependence on the employer.) 1 She is paid a weekly cash allowance of $2,000.00.

2.  Can the laborer own property on the same terms as his or her employer? (Preventing laborers from

owning property serves the same purpose as paying him or her entirely in kind as it prevents the worker

from selling assets when s/he wishes to move to a new employer.) 0 The assets accumulated by virtue of her work, estimated at $60 million, are controlled by her guardian.

3.  Is the laborer free from physical restraints? (Punishment should be termination of employment,

not being beaten.) 1 The restraints, so far as I have ascertained, are entirely paper ones.

4.  Is the laborer free from psychological constraints? (‘Invisible’ or psychological chains can be as

potent as iron ones.) 0 She is clearly emotionally manipulated by her guardian, who is also her father.

5.  Is the laborer not legally required to work? (Vagrancy or compulsory labor laws contain, as a

newspaper put it in 1922, “the essence of slavery” because they reduce each worker’s option to remove

him or herself from the labor force, thereby reducing the attractiveness of strikes, subsistence lifestyles,

or self-employment.) 0 She claims she has been forced to work and of course we have to believe her, not due to some Woke baloney but because we know

that people respond to incentives, and her incentive under conservatorship is not to work.

6.  Is the laborer inalienable (unsalable or otherwise nontransferable to another employer without his

or her consent)? (Sale of labor services is also another characteristic of slavery, though of course not the

only one.) 0 This is a trickier one but my take, given that I am not a lawyer but can still see a clear legal path

for the sale, is that her guardian has complete control over her and if desired could sell her/the

right to benefit from her labor, to another guardian. 

7.  Is the laborer incapable of owing his/her employer significant sums or of being listed as collateral

security for an advance or other loan payable to his/her employer? (When an employer is also a major

creditor to his/her/its workers, the employer possesses too much economic power over them, which

can lead to debt bondage.) 0 She could borrow from her father or anyone whom he might sell her guardianship to.

8.  Has the worker not been subjected to ‘seasoning’ designed to break his/her will to find other

employment? (This is another standard sign of enslavement.) 0 I cannot find anyone who has used that term of art, but her recent court statement strongly

suggests that she was seasoned, though ineffectively.

9.  Does the laborer have freedom of movement in order to search for other employment? (Employers

that prevent laborer movement can effectively stop laborers from moving to employers willing to

offer better terms of employment.) 0 Clearly not.

10.  Can the laborer quit without monetary or other loss? (This question appears key to many.) 0 clearly not. She could presumably buy her freedom from her guardian, per the response to number 6 above,

but likely at the loss of most or all of the assets her labor since age 17 has accumulated.

Working Conditions:

11.  Can the laborer control his/her work schedule? (If not, s/he can be prevented from having a

personal cultural, economic, political, or social life outside of the workplace.) 0 The guardian controls such decisions.

12.  Can the laborer control the total hours s/he works? (Ditto.) 0 The guardian controls such decisions.

13.  Can the laborer control the tempo of his or her work? (If not, s/he can be driven to work at a pace

that injures his/her well-being, as well as his or her ability to have a personal life outside of work.) 0 The guardian controls such decisions.

Personal Life:

14.  Is the laborer not legally dead, socially dead, or otherwise alienated from the formal or dominant

social order? (If dead to society, the laborer has no basis for a personal life outside of work.) 0 Her social life has been curtailed, ostensibly to keep her away from illicit drugs.

15.  Does the laborer not belong to a group that has been dishonored? (Ditto.) 1 Pop music stars are more idolized than dishonored.

16.  Can the laborer determine his/her own name? (If not, his or her identity is controlled by another.) 0 Britney Spears was born Britney Jean Spears but unlike other adult Americans she could not change her name without her guardian’s approval.

17.  Can the laborer determine what to consume and where to buy consumption goods? (Employers

can lower wages into negative territory by selling laborers goods at monopoly rates and can prevent

laborers from purchasing goods that might aid in their resistance.) 1 She shops around with her allowance.

18.  Can the laborer choose his/her place of residence? (If not, a major component of the laborer’s

personal life is outside of his/her control.) 0 She was forced into a long residency in Las Vegas.

19.  Is the laborer able to marry on the same terms as his or her employer? (Ditto.) 0 No, she needs

permission from her guardian.

20. Does the laborer control his or her own children on the same terms as his or her employer? (Ditto.) 0 No, her guardian insists on an IUD and the conservatorship has apparently negatively affected her custody rights negotiations with their father, a fella named Kevin Federline.

    It is important to note that slavery is NOT illegal in the United States, it is simply highly regulated. Specifically, the 13th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution (rat. 1865) commands “Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States.” Millions of Americans have been enslaved since 1865. (For details, see the resources provided by the nonprofit Historians Against Slavery, of which I am currently treasurer.)

    A court that presumably followed due process placed Ms. Spears under conservatorship but did NOT convict her of a crime. That means that any among us could be treated similarly, whether called a slave or not. In fact, many elderly persons have already fallen victim to the guardianship system, as detailed by HBO funnyman John Oliver in 2018 and as portrayed in the 2021 comedy thriller I Care a Lot. Both show that the current system creates incentives to bilk the wealthy elderly on paternalistic grounds ultimately rooted in greed. The movie, in fact, should be entitled I Care a Lot (Not!).

    The best solution I can think of would be to turn the guardianship of duly ascertained incompetents over to nonprofit charities that receive no direct remuneration from their wards, or some other private ordering solution a la Ed Stringham’s Private Governance.

Friday, June 25, 2021

American Federalism at the Crossroads

American Federalism at the Crossroads

by Robert E. Wright, AIER Senior Faculty Fellow for the Bastiat Society of Venezuela, 23 June 2021

Nota bene: Slides unavailable. Most of my work can still be found at the AIER's Daily Economy Blog here: https://www.aier.org/staff/robert-e-wright/

[SLIDE 1] Buenas noches! Me llamo Roberto Wright y trabajo para el American Institute for Economic Research en Great Barrington, Massachusetts, en los Estados Unidos. Han pasado cuarenta años desde que estudié español, así que hablaré en inglés esta noche.


[SLIDE 2] Unlike most nations, the United States of America at its founding adopted a federal form of government whereby governance is distributed across multiple levels, from private nonprofit corporations at the bottom through local governments like towns and cities, to counties, to the now fifty state governments, to the national, or federal, government. School and other special districts add further complexity, as do tribal and territorial governments. 


[SLIDE 3] The Founders of the United States wanted a government that was strong enough to protect individual Americans from foes foreign and domestic but without creating a government strong enough to tyrannize them, as Great Britain had following the French and Indian War. That meant pitting the three branches of the national government, the legislative, executive, and judicial, against each other. It also meant pitting different levels of government against each other. 


[SLIDE 4] In other words, American governments are supposed to some degree to compete, much like businesses do. That is easiest to see at the lowest level of governance, the voluntary nonprofit corporation. Those institutions form and dissolve at the whim of the volunteers who create them to achieve specific missions, like educating people about the costs of alcohol abuse or slavery or working on Sunday or any other thing, except generating profits. 


[SLIDE 5] They obtain sanction to operate from higher levels of government, usually at the state level. They cannot directly tax the population but they can induce individuals to voluntarily divert taxes away from higher levels of government, including the national government, to them instead. They can invest some of that revenue in remunerative assets if they wish, or use it all to fund the current annual budget. 


[SLIDE 6] The line between nonprofit corporations and municipal corporations blurred yet more in recent decades as many have come to rely on government appropriations rather than individual donor dollars for much of their budgets. Nonprofit corporations typically focus on specific missions rather than geographical territories but most do, in fact, limit their activities to specific geographical areas. Even nonprofits with national or international missions are often comprised of smaller auxiliaries tied to specific states, counties, or townships. Such ties are often loose, however, and they may count as members, donors, or beneficiaries individuals not strictly resident in their geographically designed area. 


[SLIDE 7] Municipal corporations provide a range of presumed public services, from garbage collection to policing to schooling, but only in very strictly defined geographical areas. They include a hodge podge of entities, from tiny hamlets to six mile square townships to large cities. Hamlets, villages, or towns may sit wholly within other municipalities. Jenkintown, Pennsylvania, for example, is a borough located within the much larger township of Abington. Both are just a few of the municipal governments located in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania.


[SLIDE 8] As some services are thought to be better provided across jurisdictional lines, special districts have been formed to perform single functions, like schooling, fire control, mosquito abatement, or energy or water provision. Like nonprofits they are independent of local governments but, unlike nonprofits, they are not voluntary associations. They have limited taxing powers or charge use fees, as for electricity or water. There are almost 52,000 of them in America, not counting school districts. Special districts keep the costs attendant on the provision of the various services they perform off general municipal budgets and out of partisan politics to some degree.


[SLIDE 9] Were that not complicated enough, the legal relationship between local municipalities and county governments varies from state to state. What is true in Pennsylvania may not hold across the Mason-Dixon Line in Maryland. Louisiana is divided into parishes instead of counties but the difference is mainly one of nomenclature rather than function. Some states have unincorporated areas that are within counties but no other municipal government. Except in Alaska, all villages, towns, and so forth fall under the jurisdiction of a county or parish, but in a few places cities and counties have the same boundaries. In other places, like Sioux Falls, South Dakota, a single city sits within multiple counties.


[SLIDE 10] Yes, all of these overlapping jurisdictions cause confusion, which is part of the point. When jurisdiction is unclear, sometimes nobody asserts authority, creating regulatory and tax spaces where innovative activities can thrive, but also be squelched due to the uncertainties that arise in some areas of the law. In 2003, for instance, Colorado made it unlawful for municipalities to have their own gun laws because it was thought that the patchwork dissuaded people from owning or carrying guns. It just changed back, though, by allowing municipalities to enact their own firearms ordinances, so long as they are at least as strict as the statewide ones.  


[SLIDE 11] Jurisdictional overlap also allows municipal governments to check each other by offering local options. Adjacent towns might compete to provide education and parks cost-effectively lest they lose people, and hence tax base, to the other town. Or now in places like Colorado they might compete on gun regulations.


[SLIDE 12] Local revenues mostly come from personal and commercial real estate taxes but some supplement with sales taxes. A few municipalities in major metropolitan areas like Philadelphia even tax income from work, though at a relatively low rate and by piggybacking on the national Internal Revenue Service.


[SLIDE 13] State governments rely on retail sales taxes, user fees like automobile, business, and fishing licenses, and income taxes, though a few with sizable tourist industries and efficient governments, like Florida and South Dakota, are able to provide sufficient public goods without taxing incomes, in part by leaving more responsibility at the county and lower levels, including the nonprofit layer at the bottom.


[SLIDE 14] In addition to competition, federalism between state and local governments provides more nuanced, local control. A town that wants more parks or police officers than the county government allots it can raise the revenues needed to fund its own parks and rec and police departments. A county without a state university could establish its own community college, and so forth.


[SLIDE 15] From the start, America was a large and heterogeneous nation. It could never have been ruled from the top in a way that most Americans would have found worthwhile so it would have split up had it not developed a federal system with significant local autonomy. Most of its states are also too large and variegated to be completely ruled from a central location. Policies that work in cities may be entirely inappropriate for agricultural counties, and their policies would cause nothing but harm in mining and lumber districts or seashore communities.


[SLIDE 16] Of course one might imagine a country controlled from the top that nevertheless grants local governments significant autonomy without intervening provincial or county-level governments, which may simply add expensive extra levels of bureaucracy, more mouths for taxpayers to feed, so to speak. But then again there might be economies of scale that cannot be achieved at the local level. A county might be able to afford a tactical police unit that no town within the county could afford. Townships might be able to afford high schools but not community colleges. And perhaps only state governments could afford to maintain military units.


[SLIDE 17] That last point suggests that America’s federal system of governance also renders it resilient in the face of shocks. If Washington, DC were to evaporate in a thermonuclear blast, America would go on, not quite as before, but not driven to its knees by a single blow. In fact, it might improve. We know this because the national government has periodically shuttered itself for weeks at a time due to budget impasses and yet everyday life continued without interruption.


[SLIDE 18] Likewise, when state capitals have been shuttered due to natural disasters, federal and local governments take up the slack. They remain staffed by bumbling incompetent bureaucrats but no power vacuums arise to be filled by truly venal criminal elements or foreign powers.


[SLIDE 19] Most importantly, perhaps, federalism reduces the risk of tyranny by creating many centers of power and many decision makers. That was very clear during the lockdowns imposed in 2020 and 2021. Some states locked down harshly for over a year while a few, including South Dakota, put in place only a few measures designed to stop large, indoor gatherings. That allowed Americans to visit, if not move, to jurisdictions where they felt the most comfortable and also provided the policy heterogeneity necessary to prove beyond the shadow of all doubt that lockdowns and mandatory masking did not work to reduce the spread of Covid-19.


[SLIDE 20] The downside to federalism, though, was that states that removed lockdowns quickly, like Florida, allowed municipal governments and nonprofits to formulate their own policies, even ones that ran counter to state recommendations. To this day, for example, there are children in Florida forced to wear masks in school and that may be worse for students than the places that still have not returned to face-to-face instruction.


[SLIDE 21] Covid lockdowns have also exposed the fact that the U.S. national government is no longer the champion of human rights, a role it assumed during the Civil Rights Movement of the 1950s and 1960s when presidents sent federal troops to states like Arkansas and Mississippi to enforce federal court orders to desegregate schools. Instead of sending troops to states that refused to uphold the many federal laws that states were breaking in the name of public health, it complained that it could not join them in Covid tyranny or the destruction of property rights on the mantle of so-called social justice causes. When American governments join together in a phalanx instead of competing to create the best policies, they become more formidable than tyrannies that rely on a single strong man.


[SLIDE 22] If federalism still appeals in some ways, remember what Bastiat said about that which is seen and that which is not. I have described the more obvious benefits of dividing power and tax revenues in broadly rational ways. But significant costs lurk beneath. Foremost is the struggle for power between the national and state governments. If they compete to see which can most oppress some minority, woe be to its members.


[SLIDE 23] America’s Civil War was primarily about which level of government controlled fundamental labor policy. Traditionally, the matter was left to the states, some of which banned chattel slavery, some of which allowed it but didn’t subsidize it heavily, and some of which subsidized it heavily. Even before President-Elect Abraham Lincoln tried to move the national government against the institution, slave states seceded, or left the United States, and formed their own country.


[SLIDE 24] During the four-year military struggle that followed, the national government assumed additional powers from state governments and has been doing so ever since, by degrees, though not always permanently or successfully. Federal minimum wage law, for example, has been superseded by many states with their own, higher minimum wage rules. But in Wyoming and other states that do not have a state minimum wage law, the federal minimum binds local businesses.


[SLIDE 25] Similarly, for most of U.S. history, alcohol policies have been matters for state or municipal governments to decide. Well before national Prohibition in the 1920s, individual U.S. states, counties, and even towns were dry, meaning that it was illegal to manufacture, sell, or publicly consume alcohol within them. That allowed temperance advocates to live as they liked without forcing Catholics and immigrants to give up their more alcohol-tolerant cultures. When the U.S. Constitution was amended to give the national government the power to decide alcohol policy, the result was a disastrous national policy called Prohibition. After over a decade of heavy costs, the policy was eventually reversed and once again states, counties, and towns decide alcohol policy.


[SLIDE 26] The national government, however, insinuated itself into another area of policy traditionally left to the states, the regulation of substances colloquially known as drugs. Its policies were again disastrous but until recently it maintained them while asserting its legal supremacy over the states in the matter. Interestingly, however, some states challenged the national government over marijuana policy, at first legalizing its medicinal use, and now its recreational consumption. 


[Slide 27] This has created considerable confusion, as when the national government’s agents destroyed marijuana being grown on an Indian Reservation in South Dakota, where marijuana was still illegal, but for sale in Colorado, where it was legal under state law. The national government had two justifications for this. First, although called sovereign nations, Indian Reservations are ultimately simply a special type of municipality beholden to state governments in some ways and the federal Bureau of Indian Affairs in others. Second, the national government undoubtedly controls interstate commerce, which the Indian Reservation would have had to engage in for its marijuana to be legal.


[Slide 28] The contours of American federalism are in flux in other ways as well. During 2020, for example, several states blocked the free flow of American citizens from state to state, a clear violation of the U.S. Constitution, in the name of public health. The national government also allowed several state and municipal governments to flaunt federal laws and regulations by allowing protestors to secede from the United States and to attack federal office buildings, statutes, and other national property, protection of which state and local governments have traditionally provided due to scale economies.


[Slide 29] And American-style federalism is only going to get more interesting. Some scholars have called for reviving the doctrine of nullification, which almost led to a civil war in the early 1830s when South Carolina claimed the right to outlaw national tariffs in its territory. That dispute was never resolved constitutionally but rather alleviated by a political compromise that lowered tariffs, which hurt agricultural states in the South while benefiting industrialists primarily located in the North.


[Slide 30] Many of America’s unusual financial regulatory features stem from unresolved issues of federalism. To this day, insurance companies are regulated primarily by states though most are large, national organizations. Banks, by contrast, are regulated by a “crazy quilt” of regulators, some national, like the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, some state, and some regional, like the Federal Reserve and the regional compacts that at one time were needed to branch across state lines. Even securities regulation is federal, with so-called state-level Blue Sky Laws supplementing the national Securities and Exchange Commission’s rules. Financial regulators have incentives to work together to make their lives easier but during crises informal arrangements can break down or lead to untoward outcomes that of course regulators try to hide.


[Slide 31] In short, those seeking to create a federal system of government may want to look to Switzerland rather than the United States. In an earlier draft, I also suggested Canada but then I learned that Alberta is seeking independence right now. Quebec long did but was mollified without conflict. Albertans, though, are citing America’s Declaration of Independence, specifically the part where it says “when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing inevitably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such a government,” and create a new one. Albertans trace that long chain of abuses all the way back to 1870 because ever since Ottawa has assumed more and more power over their daily lives. Bilingualism and urban cosmopolitanism play well in Toronto and Montreal, but not the oil and agricultural regions of the west. Albertans now annually pay $20 billion more in taxes to Ottawa than they receive back in government services.


[Slide 32] In the U.S., significant differences in policy preferences between rural and urban counties now create dissension in many states. Several rural counties have voted to leave Oregon for Idaho, for example, and one county in Nevada just announced that it will protect its residents from the enforcement of unconstitutional state or federal laws that impinge on the freedom of speech, the right to bear arms, and so forth. 


[Slide 33] Rural and Republican states also seek to increase their ability to block national policies, from Covid restrictions to firearms laws to voting procedures, with which they disagree. Florida has taken the lead in many ways. They can only do so much, however, because the national government definitely controls what America’s founders called the power of the purse. The national government controls the individual and corporate income tax apparatus, strongly influences the printing of money, and has the best access to credit markets. It can use its immense fiscal power to bend states to its will, as it did in the 1970s and 1980s when it forced states to lower speed limits to 55 miles per hour and to raise the legal drinking age to 21 by threatening to withhold their federal highway appropriations if they didn’t comply. Thankfully, it eventually lost the speed limit battle.


[Slide 34] I have suggested that at some point states may have to interdict federal taxes rather than allow their citizens to continue to fund poor policies emanating from Washington. Several districts within America’s dysfunctional large cities have already threatened to do something similar. Businesses in the Fells Point neighborhood of Baltimore, for example, want to put their city taxes into an escrow account until the city government begins to collect trash and enforce laws again. And the Buckhead area of Atlanta threatens to secede from the city unless it provides more law enforcement and other public amenities.


[Slide 35] Similarly, Staten Islanders are again considered seceding from the rest of New York City, which is increasingly crime ridden and poorly governed. It is as populous as Atlanta but doesn’t have a single public hospital. It’s also geographically isolated from the rest of the city and hence a prime candidate for independence. Many upstate New Yorkers want to secede from downstate New York because, as New York City does to Staten Islanders, New York City, Long Island, and Yonkers take more in taxes more than they return in public goods. Many in southern New Jersey would love to leave northern New Jersey for the same reason. At the very least, they would like to see taxes and regulations shifted back to the county level and away from the state capitals of Albany and Trenton.


[Slide 36] What secession movements indicate are that people feel that the government is not being sufficiently responsive to their needs because it takes more in taxes than it returns in public goods. They feel they are being forced to subsidize those in power and their constituents. They feel tyrannized by the majority and hence want to create a new majority by cleaving off from the old to go on their own, or to join a more amenable group, or to have more local control.


[Slide 37] When the U.S. national government had relatively little power before the Civil War, secession movements remained weak because there were no clear benefits when the governments with the most direct effect on Americans’ lives were local and state ones. Moving from one town to another in pursuit of better policies was relatively cheap. Even moving from one state to another was often possible and sometimes states were cleaved from other ones, or from larger territories, rendering physical movement to more amenable jurisdictions unnecessary. 


[Slide 38] The more powerful the national government becomes, however, the more it becomes necessary to leave the nation entirely, or to secede from it, in order to enjoy better policies. The bigger states with histories as independent republics or territories, like Alaska, California, and Texas, periodically threaten secession but today entire regions appear poised to leave the Union if the national government persists in raising taxes, debasing the dollar, weakening the military and border controls, and fomenting racial animosities. The specter of national voting and zoning laws, like the specter of national labor laws in 1861, may well cause another attempt by some states to leave the United States so they can forge an independent path. 


[SAME] America has stayed together for so long by being a union of states, governed by many overlapping levels, not a single leader in Washington, DC. While some local and state officials may well capitulate to the right national leader, many others will resist further attempts at centralization and they will garner significant local support. 


[SAME] There is an old adage that the American Revolution was not about Home Rule but who would rule at home. It was not about Independence, in other words, but who would govern America. To defeat the British, coalitions formed and they all sought a share of power after independence was won, making federalism a natural governance choice. Almost 250 years after the Revolution began, Americans again wonder who shall rule at home, bureaucrats in Washington, DC or multiple layers of elected officials, from the officers of nonprofits to county commissioners and mayors to state governors to a President checked by those layers as well as by Congress and the federal judiciary. Time will tell.


[Slide 39] Gracias. ¿Preguntas?


Tuesday, May 18, 2021

American Public Policy at the Crossroads

American Public Policy at the Crossroads

By Robert E. Wright, AIER

EBHS Virtual Conference 18 May 2021


Of course there never existed a time when some American government or another did not restrict certain activities and impose monetary and/or in-kind taxes on citizens. I won’t bore you with a detailed survey, which is available in the Congressional Quarterly history of U.S. economic policy reference book that I edited with Tom Zeiler a few years back.


Nor will I here attempt to rigorously demonstrate the obvious, that the number and real size of taxes and regulations have grown enormously since first settlement, usually during wars or other emergencies via the ratchet effect described by Bob Higgs in books like Crisis and Leviathan.


What I would like to establish -- obviously in a big book, not this short talk -- is that almost all regulation, and the taxation that supports it, is ultimately a form of private and/or public rent-seeking, a point elucidated by French political economist Frederic Bastiat in the first half of the nineteenth century. What has evolved since is a sophisticated version of Shirley Jackson’s 1948 short story “The Lottery,” where some people are sacrificed for the greater good, or rather what passes for it.


For those not conversant, Jackson’s story is about farm towns that maintain an institution called the lottery by which one villager each year was randomly chosen to be stoned to death to ensure an ample harvest. The fictional story shocked many readers because Jackson set it in postwar, post-New Deal America, when many people were wondering if they were not being sacrificed to public policies of unproven merit.


From this line of thought emerges the hypothesis that American society is not so much systemically racist as its government is systemically exploitative, sometimes but not always along racial lines. Big government and big business both benefit from this system of exploitation and hence were happy to jump onto the BLM/CRT bandwagons to distract from the real problem, which boils down to the government taking from Paul to pay Peter for no other reason than Paul was unlucky in the circumstances of his birth and hence less politically powerful than Peter, who, unlike Jackson’s villagers, do not have to personally bludgeon Paul to benefit from his life force.


What I mean by a policy crossroad is a juncture where a single policy, or an entire policy set, stops serving the public interest and instead imposes a cost on a specific individual or group for the benefit of another individual or group. Such blatant, coerced redistribution was unacceptable to the Founders and Framers, who instead urged the formation of voluntary associations to aid the poor, educate and doctor the masses, and encourage agriculture, commerce, and manufacturing. Tens of thousands of organizations dedicated to such pursuits incorporated before the Civil War, and untold others formed and operated under less formal articles of association. DeTocqueville and others marveled over their ubiquity and I hope to publish my book about them, tentatively titled Liberty Lost: The Rise and Demise of Voluntary Association in Antebellum America, by year’s end.


That is not to say, of course, that America’s Founders and Framers saw no scope for government action. As the preamble of the Constitution declares, government should “promote the general welfare” while also securing the “blessings of liberty.” Unfortunately, the Founders and Framers never made absolutely clear what they meant by the general welfare, leaving some room for debate.


Some government policies aid all and hence clearly promote the general welfare, however construed. Those policies that aid one or more without imposing costs on others also, it seems, would fall under general welfare promotion. They are sometimes called Pareto improving policies. Those that serve the public interest on average (total benefits > total costs, though with some individuals bearing net costs), sometimes called Kaldor-Hicks improving, may be justifiable if the net costs are unknowable or random or evenly spread and small.


Policies that meet such criteria do exist. Prohibitions on murder and slavery are prime examples of policies that aid all, as are taxes used to defend citizens from physical violence. Pareto policies include most that increase efficiency, as in trash collection, if those injured are identified and compensated. Some Kaldor-Hicks policies, like some public infrastructure projects that cannot find sufficient private funding due to market failures like asymmetric information, can also be justified by the US Constitution’s crucial Preamble.


Policies like those that clearly promote the general welfare are, however, rare relative to the universe of all possible policies. America’s Founders and Framers realized that and hence favored limited government and numerous checks and balances designed to keep policies far from the crossroads of exploitation.


The fatal flaw in the governance system the Founders created was the so-called police power of the state, a doctrine that provided state and municipal governments with considerable discretion to regulate a wide range of economic and social activities, from selling alcohol to cussing or spitting in public to hunting on Sunday. Almost no such policies aided everyone, few were Pareto improving, and many were not even Kaldor-Hicks improving because the costs of enforcement exceeded the benefits of banning. Yet judges allowed the so-called police powers not just to persist, but over time to proliferate to the point that many found it acceptable for governors to declare entire classes of citizens unnecessary and others as expendable in response to a pandemic that even in its grossest exaggeration was mild in historical terms.


Especially in the context of early America, it was often far easier and cheaper for people with minority views on police power policies to move to jurisdictions with more amenable rules. That reduced local political tensions because over time like-minded people tended to cluster, as in Pennsylvania’s Amish country, the slave South, or the Burned-Over-District of western New York. The result was tremendous heterogeneity between states on statewide policies and within states on local policies, like zoning, alcohol sales, and school curricula.


Over time, governments in locales in relatively high demand due to natural amenities like beaches, mountains, and generally salubrious weather patterns found they could tax and regulate more without triggering out migration. Lower demand districts, like the flat and frigid northern Great Plains, taxed and regulated less in order to retain population.


Eventually, that led to serious political polarization due to selective sorting and reinforcement through the school system and everyday experience. People who valued liberty most moved to the center of the continent and Alaska, while those who valued it least congregated on the coasts and Hawaii. Local school districts everywhere reflected local views, so in South Dakota students get a robust entrepreneurship curriculum while in Loudon County, Virginia Critical Race Theory is all the rage. 


Finally, a sort of confirmation bias creeps in. People in Place X with Policy Set Y think Y must be fine because X remains populated and functioning at some level, even if it is despite Y rather than because of it.


Mobility is not always cheap and may have become less common, rather than more, as Americans over the last half century accumulated stuff faster than moving industry productivity increased. Keep in mind that college professors are unusually peripatetic in large part because they have to be due to the nature of the higher ed job market. Members of most other occupations, though, can find work in many locations and once they settle down and have kids often do not want to move, even within a metropolitan area, a predilection that gave rise to the notoriously hellacious American commute. Online work has further increased the tendency to stay put even as careers twist and turn over time and space.

The relative decline in mobility, along with federal tax laws, allowed state and local governments to raise tax rates and assert increasing levels of control without losing population. Many municipalities, however, have hit the limit of what even their self-selected and selectively educated local populations will put up with, inducing more political strife over policy sets or, where the municipal government is too large or corrupt to be swayed, old fashioned out-migration or housing cost declines. Because the effects of many policy decisions made in 2020 were so palpable, one in ten Americans moved despite the pandemic and the many restrictions it spawned. The sorting continues and may have lasting effects on housing and rental markets. 


I kid you not, a friend of mine recently passed on a $1,500 a month one bedroom on Manhattan’s Upper East Side because she thought it too expensive. Manhattan isn’t completely depopulated, it is just that rents have plummeted in response to the city’s failed policy set, including police defunding and irrational Covid restrictions. Sure, some people fled to New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and the Hudson River Valley but others stayed after negotiating lower rents, which rent moratoria made easier to do by essentially abrogating existing lease agreements. Look for landlords to seek compensation for their losses in a politically palatable form, including increased barriers to entry like stricter zoning and permitting regimes, some of which will take the guise of mandating expensive “green” buildings.


In any event, those who seek to transform America of course find geographical mobility problematic. California tried to limit it by taxing the assets of those who vote with their feet for a full decade after they flee. Before the pandemic I joked that California would soon have to build a Berlin-style wall but Covid allowed it to build paper walls in the name of public health, i.e., one of the alleged police powers of the state.


A more ambitious program is attempting to federalize traditionally local policies in the name of efficiency or social justice or climate change or public health. A spate of books about states’ rights has done little to stem the trend because the federal government holds most of the purse strings, which it uses to fiscally strangle those who oppose its mandates.


It is, of course, very costly to flee the United States in terms of opportunity cost, at least for the present, and in absolute terms. For example, Americans cannot just move to Canada if so inclined. All that most Americans who dislike a policy set, increasingly an homogenous one made in Washington, DC, can do is to resist. We caught the slightest glimpse of what that might look like on 6 January. Increasing insistence on payment in cash or crypto to facilitate tax evasion is another, less visible but very real sign of resistance.


American public policy is at a major crossroads but its future path remains unclear. The nation’s direction may come down to chance, or the actions of a key policymaker or two, as it did when Alexander Hamilton and James Madison coaxed several disparate interests into adopting the Pareto-improving national Constitution.


Some fear that America will take the road heading toward bloodshed, even civil war, or disunion. It is possible, though, that conservatives, by which I mean those who wish to preserve America’s written and unwritten constitutions, will capitulate, or the progressives, by which I mean those who wish to upend federalism and other checks and balances, will remain content to control major U.S. cities while again leaving the rest of the country to its own devices.


America’s mounting fiscal difficulties, however, render capitulation by either party increasingly unlikely and will soon pull many fence-sitters into the fray on one side or the other. Nobody knows the country’s debt limit but the progressive side seems bent on discovering it and little stands in its way, especially if the filibuster is ended or subverted through so-called budget reconciliation, Washington, DC becomes a state, and/or SCOTUS gets expanded to 13 members.


Once the federal government’s credit is shattered, which increasingly seems like a question of when rather than if, real resources will have to be redistributed and disagreements over competing policy sets will grow increasingly acrimonious as the Shirley Jacksonian lottery-like nature of most policies becomes increasingly clear to increasingly larger segments of the population. 


Maybe, though, the masses will be assuaged or befuddled with the accounting legerdemain inherent in a Universal Basic Income program and the country will simply descend into a no-growth equilibrium with limited innovation. At least then the border crisis will ease, end, or possibly reverse. 


Perhaps, the masses will rebel against too much government and insist on a return to federalism, if not limited government. That seems unlikely, though, as they are increasingly easily duped with misinformation and disinformation due to their substandard public education and progressive control of much of mass and social media.


It is difficult to hold out much hope for a generation that suffered so silently through the 9/11 debacle, the global financial fiasco, and the botched Covid response. I guess it comes down to whether those government-induced traumas have a cumulative effect, like the lead up to the American Revolution.


For those unfamiliar, the roots of that world-changing event formed during a war started in response to terrorist attacks known in America as the French and Indian War and in Europe as the Seven Years’ War. A little-known mortgage crisis that began in 1763 prepared the ground for the Stamp Act resistance of 1765. Continued economic malaise forced the distant federal government, then in London of course, to increase taxes, which led to more resistance and, eventually, the Boston massacre and tea party, which fomented the final straw, the Coercive Acts. Most of the current denizens of Massachusetts whom I have met are too physically and morally cowardly and intellectually stunted to play the role of revolutionary again but potential pockets of revolution can be found in many places throughout the country.


My apologies again for speaking in such generalities but this paper should have been delivered in Atlanta last year, not via Zoom right now, partly due to fear of Covid but largely due to public policies of dubious merit. I believe that economic and business history can be a very valuable policy analysis tool when deployed minutely, as Andrew Smith and I do in a paper soon coming out in Business History Review about the role an obscure SEC rule adopted in the mid-1970s played in fomenting the global financial crisis of 2008. But business and economic history can be even more valuable when carefully deployed to address Big Picture questions, like the state of the union.


Thank you for your time and Zoomtention.