This blog will show that financial history is both intrinsically interesting and of crucial importance to many aspects of public policy, ranging from Social Security to construction to macroeconomic stability.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Net Outrageous!
There was a fella whose name escapes me on the Colbert Report a few back complaining that many companies were paying later than usual. Like Net 60 or 90 instead of Net 30 or 15. In other words, corporations are getting forced loans from their suppliers and contractors. One way to fight this is to insist that the company pay interest on any balances still due after 15 or 30 days of invoicing. And the interest rate should be what YOU lose by not having the money, not the Fed Funds rate, the prime rate, etc. So more like 10% than 1%. Most corporations can of course get loans at a lower rate than a small business person can so they will likely pay up in a reasonable time. Of course they might not do any more business with you too in which case you might let them play their Net Outrageous game but increase your fee at the first opportunity. If they ask why your fee went up, dispassionately explain that your costs have increased because your clients pay so slowly these days but then offer them a discount (back to your usual fee) if they pay promptly, as you define it. Technology these days is such that Net 5 should be the norm, but that is another topic.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Federal Government Partial Shutdown? Huzzah! Huzzah!
Due to the budget impasse, the federal government may experience a partial shutdown like that of 1995-96.
I think a partial shutdown is a good idea. No, a GREAT idea, but only if the parts that stop operating are shuttered permanently pending positive proof that they were providing goods (as opposed to bads) and that the government itself has to provide those goods. Such a shutdown would allow private enterprise and charity to step into the void and show that we don't need the federal government for much beyond homeland defense and federal courts. Leasing of national infrastructure and parks would allow the national government to run a surplus next year and soon after to implement a large, permanent tax decrease that will spark the greatest economic expansion since ratification of the Constitution.
I think a partial shutdown is a good idea. No, a GREAT idea, but only if the parts that stop operating are shuttered permanently pending positive proof that they were providing goods (as opposed to bads) and that the government itself has to provide those goods. Such a shutdown would allow private enterprise and charity to step into the void and show that we don't need the federal government for much beyond homeland defense and federal courts. Leasing of national infrastructure and parks would allow the national government to run a surplus next year and soon after to implement a large, permanent tax decrease that will spark the greatest economic expansion since ratification of the Constitution.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
On dentists and dentistry
In Fubarnomics and Broken Buildings, Busted Budgets, I* show how we need to move toward fixed cost contracts if we ever want productivity in construction to improve. No more of this "I bid $3 [thousand, million, billion] but because of X, Y, Z [usually total b.s.] I need you to pay me $6 [thousand ...]" crap!
So when a local dentist advertised a price guarantee, I decided to check it out. That's when I confronted another problem, one of asymmetric information. The dentist said that I needed a filling in one of my molars. That's plausible -- I only brush, floss, and use mouthwash 4x a day, have missed only 1 cleaning in the last decade, and had only 3 small cavities as a child -- but the diagnosis rather took me by surprise. As advertised, the dentist gave me a firm quotation on the proposed work but while driving home from the appointment I heard another local commercial, this one by an auto mechanic who was making fun of mechanics who screw customers by coming up with screwy car ailments. Pretty funny: something about a muffler belt and a flux capacitor, the latter of which I am pretty sure is found only in certain time traveling cars. In any event, I thought what a nice racket this could be: appear to be a "good guy" by offering a firm quotation but do it on unnecessary work! Then an RDH friend of mine confirmed the validity (though of course not the veracity) of my fears.
So I've been musing about how to fix this problem and came to the following solution: instead of relying on "trust," as the dentist and the auto mechanic in question claimed I should, couldn't we devise a system where dentists, auto mechanics, and any other line of business where asymmetric information is heavy anonymously check each other's work? Say all dentists, or at least the ones that want to signal their quality, agree to review each others' diagnoses. (One for every patient of theirs reviewed by someone else in the group.) Upload the X-rays (c'mon, you should all be digital by now ... and if not, buy a scanner!) to a system that would randomly send them to another dentist in the region (or time zone) for review. Lacking any incentive to lie, the provider of the second opinion would be much more "trustworthy" than the first. The ADA or other association could spot check the diagnoses to keep everyone on the up and up and provide a third opinion in cases where the first two disagree.
The same could be done for automobile repair, I suspect, by creating short videos of the car experiencing problems when running, taking pics of the part(s) in doubt, etc. (And then give a firm price quotation, of course.)
Yes, these procedures would consume resources but they would probably pay for themselves with an increased volume of overall business as people learned that even though they can't trust their local service provider they can trust the second opinion system of which they are a part. For now, I'm leaving my tooth untreated and leaving the "check engine" light in my Saturn on for at least another month.
*And my co-authors on BBBB of course.
So when a local dentist advertised a price guarantee, I decided to check it out. That's when I confronted another problem, one of asymmetric information. The dentist said that I needed a filling in one of my molars. That's plausible -- I only brush, floss, and use mouthwash 4x a day, have missed only 1 cleaning in the last decade, and had only 3 small cavities as a child -- but the diagnosis rather took me by surprise. As advertised, the dentist gave me a firm quotation on the proposed work but while driving home from the appointment I heard another local commercial, this one by an auto mechanic who was making fun of mechanics who screw customers by coming up with screwy car ailments. Pretty funny: something about a muffler belt and a flux capacitor, the latter of which I am pretty sure is found only in certain time traveling cars. In any event, I thought what a nice racket this could be: appear to be a "good guy" by offering a firm quotation but do it on unnecessary work! Then an RDH friend of mine confirmed the validity (though of course not the veracity) of my fears.
So I've been musing about how to fix this problem and came to the following solution: instead of relying on "trust," as the dentist and the auto mechanic in question claimed I should, couldn't we devise a system where dentists, auto mechanics, and any other line of business where asymmetric information is heavy anonymously check each other's work? Say all dentists, or at least the ones that want to signal their quality, agree to review each others' diagnoses. (One for every patient of theirs reviewed by someone else in the group.) Upload the X-rays (c'mon, you should all be digital by now ... and if not, buy a scanner!) to a system that would randomly send them to another dentist in the region (or time zone) for review. Lacking any incentive to lie, the provider of the second opinion would be much more "trustworthy" than the first. The ADA or other association could spot check the diagnoses to keep everyone on the up and up and provide a third opinion in cases where the first two disagree.
The same could be done for automobile repair, I suspect, by creating short videos of the car experiencing problems when running, taking pics of the part(s) in doubt, etc. (And then give a firm price quotation, of course.)
Yes, these procedures would consume resources but they would probably pay for themselves with an increased volume of overall business as people learned that even though they can't trust their local service provider they can trust the second opinion system of which they are a part. For now, I'm leaving my tooth untreated and leaving the "check engine" light in my Saturn on for at least another month.
*And my co-authors on BBBB of course.
My Twitter "career"
I haven't been blogging much of late because I've been too busy working on a massive project (that might be going bust soon). :-(
I have been doing a little tweeting though. Here they are to date. Feel free to "follow" if you like but I'm much less committed to it than to this blog, which finally generated some income for me last month! Tweeting is a little like a "quickie": it's better than nothing sometimes but not as satisfying as a good, long blogging. Ya know?
Wrighticism #19: If the measure of a man is earning more money than his wife can spend then I am surely a failure! Happy Valentine Day yall!
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #18: "skippy" = the way to pronounce Skype when the video isn't functioning well. "skyp" = skip; e = y (ee). Get it?
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #17: caveat erus = let the owner (investor) beware
robertewright Robert E. Wright
My textbook publisher is growing http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-20/bertelsmann-puts-cash-into-college-textbook-publisher-ft-says.html
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #16: homo ereptor = man the thief, in "honor" of the ways that we steal from each other, sometimes openly, sometimes in darkness
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #15: twittersated = to have written and/or read enough tweets for the day/month/year/decade. As in I am twittersated for today.
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #14: twittertwit = ppl hu rite in twitter in such s-hand tht it is freakin impossible to understd what the heck they mean.
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #13: triskaidekaphonia = fake fear of the number 13, not be confused with triskaidekaphiladephia = fear of 13 Phillies/Flyers.
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #12: trannycock = that's not a dead hen pheasant you just shot, that's a rooster that likes to dress up in hen feathers!!
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #11: fourclosure = when not one but four houses on your block are being sold at sheriff's sale in the same week.
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #10: antler (fur, feather, scale) "porn" = those hunting and fishing TV shows w/ only the biggest and best deer, ducks, fish etc
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #9: znorexia = when chubby people see themselves as skinny in the mirror and have another helping of chocolate-covered cumquats
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #8: crybaby capitalism = redistribution to private enterprises that complain loudest rather than create the most economic value
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #7: bailout nation = a country that instead of creating wealth redistributes it to special interests during supposed crises
29 Dec Favorite Reply Delete
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #6: bailoutnomics = the study of the economic effects of government bailouts of private enterprises and other governments
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #5: bailout incidence = the ultimate recipient of bailout funds; analogous to "tax incidence."
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #4: wheatful = fruitful, but in a non-gluten free format
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #3: cornful = fruitful, but in a corny way
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #2: megapocrisy = a grossly large or blatant hypocrisy; a mega-hypocrisy; the lifeblood of most DC politicians
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #1: Wrighticism = a neologism or witticism by Robert E. Wright
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Secession and America's Looming Fiscal Crisis, Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2010/12/21/secession-and-americas-looming-fiscal-crisis/
I have been doing a little tweeting though. Here they are to date. Feel free to "follow" if you like but I'm much less committed to it than to this blog, which finally generated some income for me last month! Tweeting is a little like a "quickie": it's better than nothing sometimes but not as satisfying as a good, long blogging. Ya know?
Wrighticism #19: If the measure of a man is earning more money than his wife can spend then I am surely a failure! Happy Valentine Day yall!
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #18: "skippy" = the way to pronounce Skype when the video isn't functioning well. "skyp" = skip; e = y (ee). Get it?
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #17: caveat erus = let the owner (investor) beware
robertewright Robert E. Wright
My textbook publisher is growing http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-20/bertelsmann-puts-cash-into-college-textbook-publisher-ft-says.html
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #16: homo ereptor = man the thief, in "honor" of the ways that we steal from each other, sometimes openly, sometimes in darkness
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #15: twittersated = to have written and/or read enough tweets for the day/month/year/decade. As in I am twittersated for today.
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #14: twittertwit = ppl hu rite in twitter in such s-hand tht it is freakin impossible to understd what the heck they mean.
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #13: triskaidekaphonia = fake fear of the number 13, not be confused with triskaidekaphiladephia = fear of 13 Phillies/Flyers.
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #12: trannycock = that's not a dead hen pheasant you just shot, that's a rooster that likes to dress up in hen feathers!!
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #11: fourclosure = when not one but four houses on your block are being sold at sheriff's sale in the same week.
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #10: antler (fur, feather, scale) "porn" = those hunting and fishing TV shows w/ only the biggest and best deer, ducks, fish etc
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #9: znorexia = when chubby people see themselves as skinny in the mirror and have another helping of chocolate-covered cumquats
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #8: crybaby capitalism = redistribution to private enterprises that complain loudest rather than create the most economic value
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #7: bailout nation = a country that instead of creating wealth redistributes it to special interests during supposed crises
29 Dec Favorite Reply Delete
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #6: bailoutnomics = the study of the economic effects of government bailouts of private enterprises and other governments
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #5: bailout incidence = the ultimate recipient of bailout funds; analogous to "tax incidence."
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #4: wheatful = fruitful, but in a non-gluten free format
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #3: cornful = fruitful, but in a corny way
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #2: megapocrisy = a grossly large or blatant hypocrisy; a mega-hypocrisy; the lifeblood of most DC politicians
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Wrighticism #1: Wrighticism = a neologism or witticism by Robert E. Wright
robertewright Robert E. Wright
Secession and America's Looming Fiscal Crisis, Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2010/12/21/secession-and-americas-looming-fiscal-crisis/
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